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Oil Prices, Monetary Policy, and Counterfactual Experiments

FRB of Cleveland Working Paper No. 05-10

29 Pages Posted: 31 Oct 2007

See all articles by Charles T. Carlstrom

Charles T. Carlstrom

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Timothy S. Fuerst

University of Notre Dame

Date Written: October 2005

Abstract

Recessions are associated with both rising oil prices and increases in the federal funds rate. Are recessions caused by the spikes in oil prices or by the sharp tightening of monetary policy? This paper discusses the difficulties in disentangling these two effects.

Suggested Citation

Carlstrom, Charles T. and Fuerst, Timothy S., Oil Prices, Monetary Policy, and Counterfactual Experiments (October 2005). FRB of Cleveland Working Paper No. 05-10, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1025502 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1025502

Charles T. Carlstrom (Contact Author)

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ( email )

PO Box 6387
Cleveland, OH 44101-1387
United States
216-579-2294 (Phone)
216-579-3050 (Fax)

Timothy S. Fuerst

University of Notre Dame ( email )

Notre Dame, IN 46556
United States

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