How to Project Patient Persistency

10 Pages Posted: 3 Nov 2007

See all articles by Ka Lok Lee

Ka Lok Lee

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Peter Fader

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Bruce Hardie

London Business School

Abstract

A problem that pharmaceutical companies face is how to project the persistency patterns of patients who are taking their manufactured medications into the future; i.e., how to determine the percentage of patients who will continue to refill a given prescription on a timely basis. The authors have developed a probability model with a well-grounded story for the dropout process. The model, which can be implemented in a simple Excel spreadsheet, provides remarkably accurate forecasts as well as other useful diagnostics about patient persistency.

Suggested Citation

Lee, Ka Lok and Fader, Peter and Hardie, Bruce, How to Project Patient Persistency. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Vol. 8, pp. 31-35, 2007, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1027069

Ka Lok Lee (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
3730 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340
United States

Peter Fader

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
3730 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340
United States

Bruce Hardie

London Business School ( email )

Regent's Park
London, NW1 4SA
United Kingdom

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