Terrorism and Cabinet Duration: An Empirical Analysis

KOF Working Paper No. 181

29 Pages Posted: 3 Dec 2007

See all articles by Martin Gassebner

Martin Gassebner

ETH Zurich - KOF Swiss Economic Institute; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Richard Jong-A-Pin

University of Groningen - Department of Economics (Economie)

Jochen O. Mierau

University of Groningen; Netspar

Date Written: December 2007

Abstract

We examine the relationship between terrorism and cabinet duration. Our data set includes more than 2,400 cabinets in over 150 countries in the period 1968-2002. We find a small, but significant, effect of terrorism on the probability of government failure. Furthermore, we find that the impact of terrorism depends on the type of attack and is larger in case of more severe attacks. Marginal effect calculations show that the impact of terror on cabinet duration is larger than the impact of economic variables such as economic growth, but less than the impact of a civil war or a government crisis. Our results suggest that cabinets in countries with high levels of terrorism are particularly vulnerable to terrorist attacks.

Keywords: terror, political stability, cabinet dissolution

JEL Classification: D72, F59, C25

Suggested Citation

Gassebner, Martin and Jong-A-Pin, Richard and Mierau, Jochen O., Terrorism and Cabinet Duration: An Empirical Analysis (December 2007). KOF Working Paper No. 181. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1047021 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1047021

Martin Gassebner (Contact Author)

ETH Zurich - KOF Swiss Economic Institute ( email )

Weinbergstrasse 35
Zurich, 8092
Switzerland

HOME PAGE: http://www.kof.ethz.ch/chair/

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) ( email )

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Richard Jong-A-Pin

University of Groningen - Department of Economics (Economie) ( email )

P.O. Box 800
9700 AV Groningen
Netherlands

Jochen O. Mierau

University of Groningen ( email )

P.O. Box 800
9700 AV Groningen
Netherlands

HOME PAGE: http://www.rug.nl/staff/j.o.mierau

Netspar

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands

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