The Impact of Trade Liberalization on South Africa: An Analysis with a Computable General Equilibrium Model (Un modèle d'équilibre général calculable pour évaluer les effets de l'ouverture au commerce international: Le cas de l'Afrique du Sud)

Groupe d'Economie du Developpement - Lare-Efi

48 Pages Posted: 6 Dec 2007 Last revised: 23 Mar 2011

See all articles by Nicolas Herault

Nicolas Herault

University of Melbourne - Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research

Date Written: September 2004

Abstract

This article presents the results of various simulations carried out on South Africa using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The aim is to analyze the effects of various trade liberalization policies on economic growth, activities dynamics, and to a less extent, on households' incomes. The CGE model consists in 43 activities, 4 production factors, 14 representative households, 10 trading regions (for the foreign trade). Some market imperfections, like unemployment, are taken into account. Two kinds of policies are simulated: the free trade agreement signed with the European Union in 1999 and the elimination of tariff barriers. Each simulation is run under four different sets of closures. Although positive, the impacts are limited, as well as on the growth of the foreign trade as on that of the GDP. Besides, trade liberalization negatively affects the activity levels of some industries, and above all, it seems to systematically increase the income inequalities.

Note: Downloadable document is in French.

Keywords: South Africa, trade liberalisation, computable general equilibrium model

JEL Classification: C68, E17, O55

Suggested Citation

Herault, Nicolas, The Impact of Trade Liberalization on South Africa: An Analysis with a Computable General Equilibrium Model (Un modèle d'équilibre général calculable pour évaluer les effets de l'ouverture au commerce international: Le cas de l'Afrique du Sud) (September 2004). Groupe d'Economie du Developpement - Lare-Efi, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1051521 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1051521

Nicolas Herault (Contact Author)

University of Melbourne - Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research ( email )

Level 5, FBE Building, 111 Barry Street
Parkville, Victoria 3010
Australia

HOME PAGE: http://www.findanexpert.unimelb.edu.au/researcher/person125238.html

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