Download This PaperFiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe
IGIER Working Paper No. 142
40 Pages Posted: 21 Jul 1998
Date Written: September 1998
Abstract
This paper analyzes two features of concern to policy-makers in the countries of the prospective European Monetary Union: the solvency of their government's finances and the accuracy of fiscal forecasts. Extending the existing methodology of solvency tests, the paper finds that, with few exceptions, EU governments are insolvent, albeit debt/GDP ratios show signs of stabilizing. The accuracy of official short-term fiscal forecasts (those of the OECD) is analyzed, using conventional techniques, and found to be reassuring.
JEL Classification: C22, D99, E62, H63
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
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