Partial Identification of Counter Factual Choice Probabilities

18 Pages Posted: 13 Dec 2007

See all articles by Charles F. Manski

Charles F. Manski

Northwestern University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)


This article shows how to predict counter factual discrete choice behavior when the presumed behavioral model partially identifies choice probabilities. The simple, general approach uses observable choice probabilities to partially infer the distribution of types in the population and then applies the results to predict behavior in unrealized choice settings. Two illustrative applications are given. One assumes only that persons have strict preferences. The other assumes strict preferences and utility functions that are linear in attribute bundles, with no restrictions on the shape of the distribution of preference parameters.

Suggested Citation

Manski, Charles F., Partial Identification of Counter Factual Choice Probabilities. International Economic Review, Vol. 48, Issue 4, pp. 1393-1410, November 2007, Available at SSRN: or

Charles F. Manski (Contact Author)

Northwestern University - Department of Economics ( email )

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