Birth-Cohort Projections of the Spanish Participation Rate
62 Pages Posted: 21 Dec 2007
Date Written: December 20, 2007
This paper develops a projection of the Spanish aggregate participation rate between 2004 and 2020. We construct independent projections by nationality and gender using micro-data from the Labour Force Survey (1977-2004). When estimating the participation of individuals with Spanish citizenship we consider the impact of the NAIRU, changes attributed to the birth cohort and both the age and the educational attainment distributions. When estimating the participation rate of immigrants, we consider their age distribution as long as their recent changes in terms of the origin country composition. Moreover, for female immigrants we also consider their birth cohort. As a result, we find that changes in the participation rate of males and females due to belonging to different birth cohorts are vanishing over time. On the other hand, the change in the composition of immigrants appears to be a factor that could perpetuate over time a little bit longer. In aggregate terms, the educational upgrade of the population and the continuous increase in the participation of females compensate the aging of the population to keep the growth, although at a lower speed, of the participation rate within the whole considered period.
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Keywords: capital humano, inmigración, proyecciones demográficas, tasa de actividad
JEL Classification: J00
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation