Birth-Cohort Projections of the Spanish Participation Rate

62 Pages Posted: 21 Dec 2007

See all articles by Pilar Cuadrado

Pilar Cuadrado

Banco de España

Aitor Lacuesta

Banco de España

José María Martínez

Banco de España

Eduardo Pérez

Banco de España

Date Written: December 20, 2007

Abstract

This paper develops a projection of the Spanish aggregate participation rate between 2004 and 2020. We construct independent projections by nationality and gender using micro-data from the Labour Force Survey (1977-2004). When estimating the participation of individuals with Spanish citizenship we consider the impact of the NAIRU, changes attributed to the birth cohort and both the age and the educational attainment distributions. When estimating the participation rate of immigrants, we consider their age distribution as long as their recent changes in terms of the origin country composition. Moreover, for female immigrants we also consider their birth cohort. As a result, we find that changes in the participation rate of males and females due to belonging to different birth cohorts are vanishing over time. On the other hand, the change in the composition of immigrants appears to be a factor that could perpetuate over time a little bit longer. In aggregate terms, the educational upgrade of the population and the continuous increase in the participation of females compensate the aging of the population to keep the growth, although at a lower speed, of the participation rate within the whole considered period.

Note: Downloadable document is in Spanish.

Keywords: capital humano, inmigración, proyecciones demográficas, tasa de actividad

JEL Classification: J00

Suggested Citation

Cuadrado, Pilar and Lacuesta, Aitor and Martínez, José María and Pérez, Eduardo, Birth-Cohort Projections of the Spanish Participation Rate (December 20, 2007). Banco de España Working Paper No. 0732. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1077761 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1077761

Pilar Cuadrado (Contact Author)

Banco de España ( email )

Alcala 50
Madrid 28014
Spain

HOME PAGE: http://www.bde.es

Aitor Lacuesta

Banco de España ( email )

Madrid 28014
Spain

José María Martínez

Banco de España ( email )

Alcala 50
Madrid 28014
Spain

HOME PAGE: http://www.bde.es

Eduardo Pérez

Banco de España ( email )

Alcala 50
Madrid 28014
Spain

HOME PAGE: http://www.bde.es

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