The Role of Business Confidence Indicators in the International Interdependencies between Germany and the United States

Kiel Advanced Studies Working Paper No. 398

43 Pages Posted: 28 Dec 2007

Date Written: December 2002

Abstract

This paper is an empirical analysis of the role of business confidence indicators as international business cycle channel of transmission between Germany and the United States. Business confidence indicators are considered expectations of the level of economic activity. The analysis finds that the business cycle of Germany is positively affected by the expectations of economic activity in United States. Therefore, business confidence indicators can be considered as an important non-trade channel of transmission of the business cycle between the two countries.

Keywords: international business cycle, expectations, business cycle linkages, leading indicators

JEL Classification: E32, E39

Suggested Citation

Bandiera, Luca, The Role of Business Confidence Indicators in the International Interdependencies between Germany and the United States (December 2002). Kiel Advanced Studies Working Paper No. 398, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1078918 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1078918

Luca Bandiera (Contact Author)

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

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