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Can China Continue Feeding Itself? The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture

41 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016  

Jinxia Wang

Chinese Academy of Sciences - Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy

Robert O. Mendelsohn

Yale University - School of Forestry & Environmental Studies ; Yale University

Ariel Dinar

World Bank - Agriculture and Rural Development Department

Jikun Huang

Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)

Scott Rozelle

University of California, Davis - Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics

Lijuan Zhang

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: January 1, 2008

Abstract

Several studies addressing the supply and demand for food in China suggest that the nation can largely meet its needs in the coming decades. However, these studies do not consider the effects of climate change. This paper examines whether near future expected changes in climate are likely to alter this picture. The authors analyze the effect of temperature and precipitation on net crop revenues using a cross section consisting of both rainfed and irrigated farms. Based on survey data from 8,405 households across 28 provinces, the results of the Ricardian analysis demonstrate that global warming is likely to be harmful to China but the impacts are likely to be very different in each region. The mid latitude region of China may benefit from warming but the southern and northern regions are likely to be damaged by warming. More precipitation is beneficial to Chinese farmers except in the wet southeast. Irrigated and rainfed farmers have similar responses to precipitation but not to temperature. Warmer temperatures may benefit irrigated farms but they are likely to harm rainfed farms. Finally, seasonal effects vary and are offsetting. Although we were able to measure the direct effect of precipitation and temperature, we could not capture the effects of change in water flow which will be very important in China. Can China continue feeding itself if climate changes? Based on the empirical results, the likely gains realized by some farmers will nearly offset the losses that will occur to other farmers in China. If future climate scenarios lead to significant reductions in water, there may be large damages not addressed in this study.

Keywords: Climate Change, Crops &Crop Management Systems, Global Environment Facility, Common Property Resource Development, Rural Development Knowledge &Information Systems

Suggested Citation

Wang, Jinxia and Mendelsohn, Robert O. and Dinar, Ariel and Huang, Jikun and Rozelle, Scott and Zhang, Lijuan, Can China Continue Feeding Itself? The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture (January 1, 2008). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, Vol. , pp. -, 2008. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1081784

Jinxia Wang

Chinese Academy of Sciences - Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy ( email )

52 Sanlihe Rd.
Datun Road, Anwai
Beijing, Xicheng District 100864
China

Robert O. Mendelsohn

Yale University - School of Forestry & Environmental Studies ( email )

195 Prospect Street
New Haven, CT 06511
United States

Yale University ( email )

New Haven, CT 06520
United States
2034325128 (Phone)

Ariel Dinar

World Bank - Agriculture and Rural Development Department ( email )

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States
202-473-0434 (Phone)

Jikun Huang

Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) ( email )

Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy (CCAP)
No. Jia 11, Datun Road
Anwai, Beijing, 100101
China
+86 10 64889440 (Phone)
+86 10 64856533 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.ccap.org.cn/english/ccapstaff.asp?PID=1380

Scott Rozelle

University of California, Davis - Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics ( email )

One Shields Avenue
Davis, CA 95616
United States
530-752-9897 (Phone)

Lijuan Zhang (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

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