Pre-Election Survey Methodology: Details from Nine Polling Organizations, 1988 and 1992

Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 59, pp. 98-132, 1995

35 Pages Posted: 17 Jan 2008

See all articles by Stephen Voss

Stephen Voss

Univ. of KY Dept. of Poli. Sci.

Andrew Gelman

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science

Gary King

Harvard University

Abstract

Before every presidential election, journalists, pollsters, and politicians commission dozens of public opinion polls. Although the primary function of these surveys is to forecast the election winners, they also generate a wealth of political data valuable even after the election. These preelection polls are useful because they are conducted with such frequency that they allow researchers to study change in estimates of voter opinion within very narrow time increments (Gelman and King 1993). Additionally, so many are conducted that the cumulative sample size of these polls is large enough to construct aggregate measures of public opinion within small demographic or geographical groupings (Wright, Erikson, and McIver 1985).

Suggested Citation

Voss, Stephen and Gelman, Andrew and King, Gary, Pre-Election Survey Methodology: Details from Nine Polling Organizations, 1988 and 1992. Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 59, pp. 98-132, 1995, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1084110

Stephen Voss (Contact Author)

Univ. of KY Dept. of Poli. Sci. ( email )

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Andrew Gelman

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science ( email )

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Gary King

Harvard University ( email )

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