Peak Oil: A Reality or Hype?

Abstract

Seven years into the 21st century, the United States and the world remain heavily dependent on the fuel that powered the last 100 years: crude oil. President Bush has gone so far as to call that dependence an addiction.

Concern about the depletion of conventional global oil reserves seems to have intensified for several reasons, including technological improvements in geological data gathering and analysis, the increasingly sparse reserves discovered by new drilling, question marks over the real size of global proven reserves and concerns that much of the world's conventional oil especially in the Middle East, is coming from old and overexploited mega-fields that are becoming less productive. There is no risk that we are running out of oil but chances of being able to match the projected growth in demand over the medium term with a rise in production is being seriously questioned.

Opinions on peak oil range from optimistic predictions that the market economy will produce a solution to predictions of doomsday scenarios of a global economy unable to meet its energy needs. The reality, as is always the case, is somewhere in between.