Climate Change and Agriculture in Sri Lanka: A Ricardian Valuation

Environment and Development Economics, Vol. 10, No. 5, pp. 581-196, 2005

7 Pages Posted: 20 Jan 2008 Last revised: 19 Oct 2014

See all articles by S. Niggol Seo

S. Niggol Seo

Muaebak Institute of Global Warming Studies

Robert O. Mendelsohn

Yale University - School of Forestry & Environmental Studies; Yale University

Mohan Munasinghe

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: 2005

Abstract

This paper measures climate change impacts on Sri Lankan agriculture using the Ricardian method. The model examines the net revenue per hectare of the four most important crops in the country. The limited range of temperature variation allows only a simple test of temperature impacts, but the greater range of precipitation across the country distinguishesmore complex precipitation effects.We then examine the impacts of the climate predictions of five AOGCM models and two simple uniform change scenarios for SriLanka. The impacts of rainfall increases are predicted to be beneficial to the country as a whole in all five AOGCM scenarios, but temperature increases are predicted to be harmful. Nationally, the impacts vary from 11 billion rupees (20 per cent) to 39 billion rupees ( 72 per cent) depending on the climate scenarios. With warming, the already dry regions (the Northern and Eastern provinces), are expected to lose large portions of their current agriculture, but the cooler regions (the central highlands), are predicted to remain the same or increase their output. The paper reconfirms that climate change damages could be large in tropical developing countries, but highly dependent on the actual climate scenario.

JEL Classification: Q54

Suggested Citation

Seo, S. Niggol and Mendelsohn, Robert O. and Munasinghe, Mohan, Climate Change and Agriculture in Sri Lanka: A Ricardian Valuation (2005). Environment and Development Economics, Vol. 10, No. 5, pp. 581-196, 2005 . Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1085415

S. Niggol Seo (Contact Author)

Muaebak Institute of Global Warming Studies ( email )

Seorim-dong
Gwanak-gu
Seoul
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

HOME PAGE: http://www.muaebakinstitute.org/s.niggol-seo.html

Robert O. Mendelsohn

Yale University - School of Forestry & Environmental Studies ( email )

195 Prospect Street
New Haven, CT 06511
United States

Yale University ( email )

New Haven, CT 06520
United States
2034325128 (Phone)

Mohan Munasinghe

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

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