Power and Limits of Dynamical Systems Theory in Conflict Analysis

Abstract

One of the most exciting new approaches in conflict research applies Dynamical Systems Theory (DST) to explain the devastating dynamics of intractable conflicts. This paper describes what makes this approach so powerful, and discusses some of its limitations that become visible in the mathematical models of DST that are available so far. In its final section, some possible directions for further research are sketched with a special focus on identifying the elements of a conflict whose dynamics could be reconstructed by means of Dynamical Systems Theory.