Experts' Stated Behavior

Boulaksil, Youssef; Franses, Philip Hans

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Experts' Stated Behavior

ERIM Report Series Reference No. ERS-2008-001-MKT

20 Pages Posted: 29 Jan 2008

See all articles by Youssef Boulaksil

Youssef Boulaksil

Eindhoven University of Technology (TUE)

Philip Hans Franses

Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Department of Econometrics

Date Written: September 2008 1,

Abstract

We ask various experts, who produce sales forecasts that can differ from earlier received model-based forecasts, what they do and why they do so. A questionnaire with a range of questions was completed by no less than forty-two such experts who are located in twenty different countries. We correlate the answers to these questions with actual behavior of the experts. Our main findings are that experts have a tendency to double count and to react strongly to recent volatility in sales data. Also, experts who feel more confident give forecasts that differ most from model-based forecasts.

Keywords: model forecasts, expert forecasts, decision making, stated behavior

JEL Classification: C44, M31, M, M39, C53

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Boulaksil, Youssef and Franses, Philip Hans, Experts' Stated Behavior (September 2008 1,). ERIM Report Series Reference No. ERS-2008-001-MKT, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1088224