Macroeconomic Impact on Expected Default Freqency

Riksbank Research Paper Series No. 51

Riksbank Working Paper No. 220

34 Pages Posted: 30 Jan 2008

See all articles by Per Åsberg Sommar

Per Åsberg Sommar

Sveriges Riksbank - Financial Stability

Hovick Shahnazarian

Sveriges Riksbank

Date Written: November 2008


We use a vector error correction model to study the long-term relationship between aggregate expected default frequency and the macroeconomic development, i.e. CPI, industry production and short-term interest rate. The model is used to forecast the median expected default frequency of the corporate sector by conditioning on external forecasts of macroeconomic developments. Evaluations of the model show that it yields low forecast errors in terms of RMSE. The estimation results indicate that the interest rate has the strongest impact on expected default frequency among the included macroeconomic variables. The forecasts indicate that EDF will rise gradually over the forecast period.

Keywords: Expected Default Frequency, Macroeconomic Impact, Business cycle, vector error correction model, Financial stability, Financial and real economy interaction

JEL Classification: C32, C52, C53, G21, G33

Suggested Citation

Åsberg Sommar, Per and Shahnazarian, Hovick, Macroeconomic Impact on Expected Default Freqency (November 2008). Riksbank Research Paper Series No. 51, Riksbank Working Paper No. 220, Available at SSRN: or

Per Åsberg Sommar (Contact Author)

Sveriges Riksbank - Financial Stability ( email )

United States

Hovick Shahnazarian

Sveriges Riksbank ( email )


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