The Endogenous Price Dynamics of Emission Allowances and an Application to CO2 Option Pricing

Abstract

Market mechanisms are increasingly being used as a tool for allocating somewhat scarce but unpriced rights and resources, and the European Emission Trading Scheme is an example. By means of dynamic optimization in the contest of firms covered by such environmental regulations, this paper generates endogenously the price dynamics of emission permits under asymmetric information, allowing inter-temporal banking and borrowing. In the market there are a finite number of firms and each firm’s pollution emission follows an exogenously given stochastic process. We prove the discounted permit price is a martingale with respect to the relevant filtration. The model is solved numerically. Finally, a closed-form pricing formula for European-style options is derived.

Keywords: Asymmetric Information, Environmental Finance, European Emission Trading, Scheme, Trading Decisions

JEL Classification: C61, C63, C65, G13