Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?

Posted: 29 Feb 2008

See all articles by Pradeep Kurukulasuriya

Pradeep Kurukulasuriya

Yale University - School of Forestry and Environmental Studies; United Nations Development Programme

James K.A. Benhin

University of Pretoria - Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy for Africa (CEEPA)

Temesgen Deressa

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: 2006

Abstract

Measurement of the likely magnitude of the economic impact of climate change on African agriculture has been a challenge. Using data from a survey of more than 9,000 farmers across 11 African countries, a cross-sectional approach estimates how farm net revenues are affected by climate change compared with current mean temperature. Revenues fall with warming for dryland crops (temperature elasticity of -1.9) and livestock (-5.4), whereas revenues rise for irrigated crops (elasticity of 0.5), which are located in relatively cool parts of Africa and are buffered by irrigation from the effects of warming. At first, warming has little net aggregate effect as the gains for irrigated crops offset the losses for dryland crops and livestock. Warming, however, will likely reduce dryland farm income immedia-tely. The final effects will also depend on changes in precipitation, because revenues from all farm types increase with precipitation. Because irrigated farms are less sensitive to climate, where water is available, irrigation is a practical adaptation to climate change in Africa.

Suggested Citation

Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep and Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep and Benhin, James K.A. and Deressa, Temesgen, Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change? ( 2006). The World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 20, Issue 3, pp. 367-388, 2006, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1093511 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhl004

Pradeep Kurukulasuriya (Contact Author)

Yale University - School of Forestry and Environmental Studies ( email )

New Haven, CT 06511
United States

United Nations Development Programme ( email )

New York, NY 10017
United States
2129066843 (Phone)

James K.A. Benhin

University of Pretoria - Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy for Africa (CEEPA) ( email )

Pretoria 0002
South Africa

Temesgen Deressa

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

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