Achieving Accelerated and Shared Growth in Ghana: A MAMS-Based Analysis of Costs and Opportunities

26 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Zeljko Bogetic

Zeljko Bogetic

World Bank

Maurizio Bussolo

World Bank - Chief Economist Office for Europe and Central Asia

Denis Medvedev

World Bank; American University

Date Written: February 1, 2008

Abstract

This paper relies on the recently developed Maquette for Millennium Development Goals Simulations (MAMS) model to assess the consistency of alternative scaling-up and policy packages for growth and achievement of the Millennium Development Goals in Ghana. In the baseline scenario, Ghana's strong near and medium-term growth outlook puts it in a good position to achieve the poverty Millennium Development Goal ahead of schedule, but other goals are likely to remain elusive before 2015. In the accelerated growth scenario - which addresses the major gaps in water and sanitation and other infrastructure - even more rapid growth and poverty reduction are possible, but important targets in the areas of education, health, and environment remain unattainable. Although growth is complementary to achievement of the Millennium Development Goals, the authors also find important growth-human development trade-offs in the near term. The estimates show that the resource requirements for achieving the key Millennium Development Goals by 2015 are large, reaching US$82 per capita in an illustrative foreign-grant financed scenario. Increased intake and retention of students contribute to rising scarcity of unskilled labor, buttressing unskilled wages, while high demand for skills from the sectors related to the Millennium Development Goals raises the returns to human capital. These developments lead to improvements in the welfare of the poorest members of Ghanaian society and contribute to a small reduction in overall inequality.

Keywords: Population Policies, Achieving Shared Growth, Public Sector Expenditure Analysis & Management, Economic Theory & Research

Suggested Citation

Bogetic, Zeljko and Bussolo, Maurizio and Medvedev, Denis, Achieving Accelerated and Shared Growth in Ghana: A MAMS-Based Analysis of Costs and Opportunities (February 1, 2008). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, Vol. , pp. -, 2008. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1096424

Zeljko Bogetic

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Maurizio Bussolo

World Bank - Chief Economist Office for Europe and Central Asia ( email )

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

HOME PAGE: http://https://blogs.worldbank.org/team/maurizio-bussolo

Denis Medvedev (Contact Author)

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

American University

4400 Massachusetts Avenue N.W.
Washington, DC 20016-8029
United States

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