Race, Income, and College in 25 Years: Evaluating Justice O'Connor's Conjecture

Posted: 29 Feb 2008

See all articles by Alan B. Krueger

Alan B. Krueger

Princeton University - Industrial Relations Section; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Jesse Rothstein

University of California, Berkeley, The Richard & Rhoda Goldman School of Public Policy; University of California, Berkeley, College of Letters & Science, Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Sarah E. Turner

University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: 2006

Abstract

In Grutter v. Bollinger, Justice O'Connor conjectured that in 25 years affirmative action in college admissions will be unnecessary. We project the test score distribution of black and white college applicants 25 years from now, focusing on the role of black-white family income gaps. Economic progress alone is unlikely to narrow the achievement gap enough in 25 years to produce today's racial diversity levels with race-blind admissions. A return to the rapid black-white test score convergence of the 1980s could plausibly cause black representation to approach current levels at moderately selective schools, but not at the most selective schools.

Suggested Citation

Krueger, Alan B. and Rothstein, Jesse and Turner, Sarah E., Race, Income, and College in 25 Years: Evaluating Justice O'Connor's Conjecture ( 2006). American Law and Economics Review, Vol. 8, Issue 2, pp. 282-311, 2006. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1097899 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aler/ahl004

Alan B. Krueger (Contact Author)

Princeton University - Industrial Relations Section ( email )

Princeton, NJ 08544-2098
United States
609-258-4046 (Phone)
609-258-2907 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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IZA Institute of Labor Economics

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Jesse Rothstein

University of California, Berkeley, The Richard & Rhoda Goldman School of Public Policy ( email )

2607 Hearst Avenue
Berkeley, CA 94720-7320
United States

HOME PAGE: http://eml.berkeley.edu/~jrothst

University of California, Berkeley, College of Letters & Science, Department of Economics ( email )

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Berkeley, CA 94720-3880
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Sarah E. Turner

University of Virginia ( email )

Curry School of Education
Charlottesville, VA 22903
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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