The Term Structure of Inflation Expectations
56 Pages Posted: 19 Mar 2008 Last revised: 2 Apr 2009
Date Written: April 17, 2008
We use evidence from the term structure of inflation expectations implicit in the nominal yields and survey forecasts of inflation to address the question of whether or not monetary policy is effective. We construct a model that accommodates forecasts over multiple horizons from multiple surveys and Treasury yields by allowing for differences between risk-neutral, subjective, and objective probability measures. We extract private sector expectations of inflation from this model and establish that they are driven by inflation, real activity and one latent factor, which is correlated with survey forecasts. We show that the interest rate responds to this survey factor. The inflation premium and out-of-sample estimates of the inflation longrun mean and persistence suggest that monetary policy became effective over time. As an implication, our model outperforms a standard macro-finance model in inflation and yield forecasting.
Keywords: inflation expectations, monetary policy, macro-finance, term structure model
JEL Classification: E43, E47, E52, G12
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