Cross-Border Returns Differentials

50 Pages Posted: 11 Mar 2008

See all articles by Stephanie E. Curcuru

Stephanie E. Curcuru

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Tomas Dvorak

Union College

Francis E. Warnock

University of Virginia - Darden Business School; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: February 2008

Abstract

Were the U.S. to persistently earn substantially more on its foreign investments ("U.S. claims") than foreigners earn on their U.S. investments ("U.S. liabilities"), the likelihood that the current environment of sizeable global imbalances will evolve in a benign manner increases. However, using a monthly dataset on the foreign equity and bond portfolios of U.S. investors and the U.S. equity and bond portfolios of foreign investors, we find that the returns differential for portfolio securities is near zero, far smaller than previously reported. Examining all U.S. claims and liabilities (portfolio securities as well as direct investment and banking), we find that previous estimates of large differentials are biased upward. The bias owes to computing implied returns from an internally inconsistent dataset of revised data; original data produce a much smaller differential. We also attempt to reconcile our finding of a near zero returns differential with observed patterns of cumulated current account deficits, the net international investment position, and the net income balance. Overall, we find no evidence that the U.S. can count on earning substantially more on its claims than it pays on its liabilities.

Keywords: Current account imbalances, international investment

JEL Classification: F3

Suggested Citation

Curcuru, Stephanie E. and Dvorak, Tomas and Warnock, Francis E., Cross-Border Returns Differentials (February 2008). FRB International Finance Discussion Paper No. 921, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1103563 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1103563

Stephanie E. Curcuru (Contact Author)

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ( email )

20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20551
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Tomas Dvorak

Union College ( email )

Schenectady, NY 12308-3107
United States
518 388 8016 (Phone)

Francis E. Warnock

University of Virginia - Darden Business School ( email )

P.O. Box 6550
Charlottesville, VA 22906-6550
United States
434-924-6076 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://faculty.darden.virginia.edu/warnockf/index.htm

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

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Cambridge, MA 02138-5398

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