Catastrophic Losses and Insurer Profitability: Evidence from 9/11

Abstract

We examine the effects of 9/11 on the insurance industry, hypothesizing a short-run claim effect, resulting from insufficient premium ex ante for catastrophic losses, and a long-run growth effect, resulting from ex post insurance supply reductions and risk updating. Following Yoon and Starks (1995) we use short- and long-run abnormal forecast revisions to measure both effects, analyzing them as a function of firm-specific characteristics. We find that firm type, loss estimates, reinsurance use, and tax position are important determinants of the short-run position. Firm type, loss estimates, financial strength, underwriting risk, and reinsurance are key determinants of the firm's long-run position.