The 52-Week High and Momentum Investing
Posted: 10 Mar 2008
When coupled with a stock's current price, a readily available piece of information¿the 52-week high price-explains a large portion of the profits from momentum investing. Nearness to the 52-week high dominates and improves upon the forecasting power of past returns (both individual and industry returns) for future returns. Future returns forecast using the 52-week high do not reverse in the long run. These results indicate that short-term momentum and long-term reversals are largely separate phenomena, which presents a challenge to current theory that models these aspects of security returns as integrated components of the market's response to news.
Keywords: 52-week high, momentum, return prediction
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