Identification of Electoral Cycles: A Case for Greece
26 Pages Posted: 12 Mar 2008
Date Written: March 10, 2008
The purpose of this paper is to identify and examine the existence of electorate business cycles in Greece over the last thirty three years. After a brief literature review of the theoretical framework regarding electorate business cycles we used quarterly data for Greece ranging from 1974Q1-2004Q4. Error correction models for major macroeconomic variables were initially employed, and then through a PROBIT and LOGIT estimation evidence was found in support of an opportunistically manipulative incumbent in the case of Greece.
Keywords: incumbent, manipulative, opportunistic, Probit, Logit
JEL Classification: G180
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