Identification of Electoral Cycles: A Case for Greece

26 Pages Posted: 12 Mar 2008

Date Written: March 10, 2008


The purpose of this paper is to identify and examine the existence of electorate business cycles in Greece over the last thirty three years. After a brief literature review of the theoretical framework regarding electorate business cycles we used quarterly data for Greece ranging from 1974Q1-2004Q4. Error correction models for major macroeconomic variables were initially employed, and then through a PROBIT and LOGIT estimation evidence was found in support of an opportunistically manipulative incumbent in the case of Greece.

Keywords: incumbent, manipulative, opportunistic, Probit, Logit

JEL Classification: G180

Suggested Citation

Merikas, Andreas G., Identification of Electoral Cycles: A Case for Greece (March 10, 2008). Available at SSRN: or

Andreas G. Merikas (Contact Author)

University of Piraeus ( email )

Piraeus, LA

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