Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity

25 Pages Posted: 18 Mar 2008

See all articles by Markus Bruckner

Markus Bruckner

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences

Antonio Ciccone

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: October 12, 2008

Abstract

According to the economic approach to political transitions, negative transitory economic shocks can open a window of opportunity for democratic change. Testing the theory requires a source of transitory shocks to the aggregate economy. We rely on rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries. Our analysis yields that negative transitory shocks lead to significant democratic change. A transitory 10 percent drop in income is followed by an improvement in democracy scores of 9 percentage points, and by an increase in the probability of a transition to democracy of 13 percentage points.

Keywords: Democratization, transitory economic shocks

JEL Classification: O0, P0

Suggested Citation

Bruckner, Markus and Ciccone, Antonio, Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity (October 12, 2008). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1107156 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1107156

Markus Bruckner

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences ( email )

Ramon Trias Fargas 25-27
Barcelona, 08005
Spain

Antonio Ciccone (Contact Author)

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences ( email )

Ramon Trias Fargas 25-27
Barcelona, 08005
Spain
+34 93 542 1669 (Phone)
+34 93 542 1746 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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