Bond Risk Premia and Realized Jump Risk

33 Pages Posted: 20 Mar 2008 Last revised: 27 Jul 2009

Jonathan H. Wright

Johns Hopkins University - Department of Economics

Hao Zhou

Tsinghua University - PBC School of Finance

Date Written: April 15, 2009

Abstract

We find that augmenting a regression of excess bond returns on the term structure of forward rates with an estimate of the mean realized jump size almost doubles the R2 of the forecasting regression. The return predictability from augmenting with the jump mean easily dominates that offered by augmenting with options-implied volatility and realized volatility from high frequency data. In out-of-sample forecasting exercises, inclusion of the jump mean can reduce the root mean square prediction error by up to 40 percent. The incremental return predictability captured by the realized jump mean largely accounts for the countercyclical movements in bond risk premia. This result is consistent with the setting of an incomplete market in which the conditional distribution of excess bond returns is affected by a jump risk factor that does not lie in the span of the term structure of yields.

Keywords: Unspanned Stochastic Volatility, Regime-Shift Term Structure, Bond Return Predictability, Expectations Hypothesis, Countercyclical Risk Premia, Realized Jump Risk

JEL Classification: G12, G14, E43, C22

Suggested Citation

Wright, Jonathan H. and Zhou, Hao, Bond Risk Premia and Realized Jump Risk (April 15, 2009). Journal of Banking and Finance, Forthcoming; FEDS Working Paper No. 2007-22; AFA 2009 San Francisco Meetings Paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1108908

Jonathan H. Wright

Johns Hopkins University - Department of Economics ( email )

3400 Charles Street
Baltimore, MD 21218-2685
United States

Hao Zhou (Contact Author)

Tsinghua University - PBC School of Finance ( email )

No. 43, Chengdu Road
Haidian District
Beijing 100083
China
86-10-62790655 (Phone)

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