How Cyclical is the Psbr?

Bank of England Working Paper No. 34

Posted: 6 Nov 2003

Abstract

This paper examines the methodology of cyclical adjustment of fiscal balances. The crucial assumption underlying any estimates of the cyclically-adjusted balance (CAB) is found to be the measure of the output gap. Estimates for the UK are presented, suggesting that when the economy returns to trend the PSBR should fall by between 3% to 4.5% of GDP from its position at the end of 1992.

Suggested Citation

Paisley, Joanna and Salmon, Chris, How Cyclical is the Psbr?. Bank of England Working Paper No. 34, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=111691

Joanna Paisley (Contact Author)

Bank of England

Threadneedle Street
London, EC2R 8AH
United Kingdom

Chris Salmon

Bank of England

Threadneedle Street
London, EC2R 8AH
United Kingdom

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