Migration Flows and Labour Market in Poland

National Bank of Poland Working Paper No. 44

28 Pages Posted: 14 Apr 2008

See all articles by Katarzyna Barbara Budnik

Katarzyna Barbara Budnik

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate Financial Stability and Supervision

Date Written: November 2007

Abstract

In the paper temporary migration flows are analyzed in conjunction with information on labour market gross flows. Gross migration flows were calculated on the base of the household survey that is conducted jointly with the LFS survey in Poland. The results indicate that the propensity to emigrate is higher for unemployed as compared with employed or non-participants. Moreover, after the EU accession these were employed and unemployed who experienced the most pronounced increase in the propensity to emigrate. The steady-state analysis of the gross labour market and migration flows delivers the estimate of the ratio of the temporary emigrants to the total population of Poland in the period 1994-2006. The ratio rose sharply after the EU accession from around 2% in 2002 to roughly 6% in 2006. Although, higher intensity of migration movements is unlikely to considerably bias the labour market figures like the unemployment rate and the activity rate, it may still lead to notable biases in the estimates of the labour productivity if emigration trends are not properly accounted for in estimates of the LFS population data.

Keywords: emigration, labour market flows, labour market, EU enlargement

JEL Classification: J01, J61, F22

Suggested Citation

Budnik, Katarzyna Barbara, Migration Flows and Labour Market in Poland (November 2007). National Bank of Poland Working Paper No. 44, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1118768 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1118768

Katarzyna Barbara Budnik (Contact Author)

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate Financial Stability and Supervision ( email )

Kaiserstrasse 29
D-60311 Frankfurt am Main
Germany

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