How Reliable are Hog Futures as Forecasts?

Posted: 11 Apr 2008

See all articles by Colin A. Carter

Colin A. Carter

University of California, Davis - Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics

Sandeep Mohapatra

University of Alberta - Faculty of Agriculture, Forestry & Home Economics - Department of Rural Economy

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: 2007-09

Abstract

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange hog futures contract was revamped in 1997 and it is one of the largest futures markets for a nonstorable commodity. The literature is divided on whether or not futures prices for nonstorables provide reliable forecasts of cash prices. We find that from 1998 to 2004, the hog futures market was an unbiased predictor of cash prices.

Suggested Citation

Carter, Colin A. and Mohapatra, Sandeep, How Reliable are Hog Futures as Forecasts? (2007-09). American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 90, Issue 2, pp. 367-378, May 2008. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1119013 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2007.01122.x

Colin A. Carter (Contact Author)

University of California, Davis - Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics ( email )

One Shields Avenue
Davis, CA 95616
United States

Sandeep Mohapatra

University of Alberta - Faculty of Agriculture, Forestry & Home Economics - Department of Rural Economy ( email )

Edmonton, Alberta
Canada

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