Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries

Abstract

VARs of real growth since 1970 are used to estimate spillovers between the U.S., euro area, Japan, and an aggregate of smaller countries, which proxies for global shocks. U.S. and global shocks generate significant spillovers, while those from the euro area and Japan are small. This paper also calculates the standard errors of impulse-response functions including uncertainty over the proper Cholesky ordering. Extensions adding exports, commodity prices, and financial variables indicate that financial effects are the largest source of spillovers. The results by subperiod underline the importance of the great moderation in U.S. output fluctuations and associated financial stability in lowering output volatility elsewhere.

Keywords: spillovers, international business cycles, vector autoregressions, United States, euro area

JEL Classification: C32, E32, F20, F43