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The Role of Freedom, Growth and Religion in the Taste for Revolution

50 Pages Posted: 30 Apr 2008  

Robert MacCulloch

Imperial College London - Tanaka Business School

Silvia Pezzini

Hong Kong Monetary Authority

Multiple version iconThere are 4 versions of this paper

Date Written: September 2002

Abstract

A fundamental issue for economists is what determines civil conflict. One unsettled question is the relative importance of political freedoms versus economic development. This paper takes a new approach to provide an answer by using micro-data based on surveys of revolutionary preferences of 130,000 people living in 61 nations between 1980 and 1997. Controlling for personal characteristics, country and year fixed effects, more freedom and economic growth both reduce revolutionary support. Losing one level of freedom, equivalent to a shift from the US to Turkey, increases support for revolt by 4 percentage points. To reduce support by the same amount requires adding 14 percentage points on to the GDP growth rate. Being Muslim in a free country has no effect on the probability of supporting revolt compared to a non-religious person. However, being Muslim in a country that is not free increases it by 13 percentage points. Being Christian in a free country decreases the chance of supporting revolt by 4 percentage points, compared to a non-religious person, and in a not-free country by 1 percentage point.

Suggested Citation

MacCulloch, Robert and Pezzini, Silvia, The Role of Freedom, Growth and Religion in the Taste for Revolution (September 2002). , Vol. , pp. -, 2002. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1127005

Robert MacCulloch (Contact Author)

Imperial College London - Tanaka Business School ( email )

South Kensington Campus
Exhibition Road
London SW7 2AZ, SW7 2AZ
United Kingdom

Silvia Pezzini

Hong Kong Monetary Authority ( email )

3 Garden Road, 30th Floor
Hong Kong
Hong Kong

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