A Cyclical Learning Process Under Uncertainty - The Spanish Soccer Betting Game Evidence

29 Pages Posted: 6 May 2008

See all articles by Francesc Pujol

Francesc Pujol

University of Navarra - Faculty of Economics and Business

Abstract

Based on the well established result of probability matching, we explore in this paper to what extent soccer bettors adjust their behavior taking into account the new relevant information provided by the market. We test empirically the existence of a learning process using the Quiniela bettors' performance, the Spanish soccer betting game, for the period 1970-2000. Empirical results suggest that there is a progressive improvement in the bettors' performance attributable to the learning process. The other remaining explanatory variables follow the expected behavior.

Keywords: betting market, learning process, soccer, Quiniela

JEL Classification: D83, L83, D81

Suggested Citation

Pujol, Francesc, A Cyclical Learning Process Under Uncertainty - The Spanish Soccer Betting Game Evidence. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1128842 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1128842

Francesc Pujol (Contact Author)

University of Navarra - Faculty of Economics and Business ( email )

Campus Universitario
Pamplona, Navarra 31009
Spain