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The Driving Force of Labor Force Participation in Developed Countries

29 Pages Posted: 7 May 2008  

Ivan Kitov

Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) - Institute for the Geospheres Dynamics

Oleg Kitov

University of Warwick

Date Written: May 1, 2008

Abstract

The evolution of labor force participation rate is modeled using a lagged linear function of real economic growth, as expressed by GDP per capita. For the U.S., our model predicts at a two-year horizon with RMSFE of 0.28% for the period between 1965 and 2007. Larger part of the deviation between predicted and measured LFP is explained by artificial dislocations in measured time series induced by major revisions to the CPS methodology in 1979 and 1989. Similar models have been developed for Japan, the UK, France, Italy, Canada, and Sweden.

Keywords: labor force participation, real GDP per capita, prediction

JEL Classification: C2, E6, J2

Suggested Citation

Kitov, Ivan and Kitov, Oleg, The Driving Force of Labor Force Participation in Developed Countries (May 1, 2008). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1130147 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1130147

Ivan O. Kitov (Contact Author)

Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) - Institute for the Geospheres Dynamics ( email )

Leninsky prospect 38/1
Moscow, Moscow 119334
Russia

HOME PAGE: http://idg3.chph.ras.ru

Oleg Kitov

University of Warwick ( email )

Gibbet Hill Rd.
Coventry, West Midlands CV4 8UW
United Kingdom

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