Economic Indicators for the US Transportation Sector

Transportation Research A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 40, No. 10, 2006

Posted: 13 May 2008

See all articles by Kajal Lahiri

Kajal Lahiri

State University of New York (SUNY) at Albany, College of Arts and Sciences, Economics

Vincent Yao

Georgia State University - J. Mack Robinson College of Business

Abstract

Since the transportation sector plays an important role in business cycle propagation, we develop indicators for this sector to identify its current state, and predict its future. We define the reference cycle, including both business and growth cycles, for this sector over the period from 1979 using both the conventional National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) method and modern time series models. A one-to-one correspondence between cycles in the transportation sector and those in the aggregate economy is found; however, both business and growth cycles of transportation often start earlier and end later than those of the overall economy. We also construct an index of leading indicators for the transportation sector using rigorous statistical procedures, and is found to perform well as a forecasting tool.

Keywords: Transportation, Business cycles, Leading indicators, Index of concordance, Dynamic factor models

Suggested Citation

Lahiri, Kajal and Yao, Vincent, Economic Indicators for the US Transportation Sector. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1131067

Kajal Lahiri

State University of New York (SUNY) at Albany, College of Arts and Sciences, Economics ( email )

Department of Economics
1400 Washington Avenue
Albany, NY 12222
United States
518-442 4758 (Phone)
518-442 4736 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.albany.edu/~klahiri

Vincent Yao (Contact Author)

Georgia State University - J. Mack Robinson College of Business ( email )

35 Broad Street
Atlanta, GA 30303-3083
United States

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