Bank Stock Returns and Economic Growth
13 Pages Posted: 9 May 2008 Last revised: 5 Sep 2008
Date Written: September 4, 2008
Previous research has established (i) that a country's financial sector influence future economic growth and (ii) that stock market index returns affect future economic growth. We extend and tie together these two strands of the growth literature by analyzing the relationship between banking industry stock returns and future economic growth. Using dynamic panel techniques to analyze panel data from 18 developed and 18 emerging markets, we find a positive and significant relationship between bank stock returns and future GDP growth that is independent of the previously documented relationship between market index returns and economic growth. We also find that much of the informational content of bank stock returns is captured by country-specific and institutional characteristics, such as bank-accounting-disclosure standards, banking crises, enforcement of insider trading law and government ownership of banks.
Keywords: banks, economic growth, emerging markets, financial development
JEL Classification: G14, G15, G21
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation