The Returns to Currency Speculation in Emerging Markets

14 Pages Posted: 19 May 2008

See all articles by A. Craig Burnside

A. Craig Burnside

Duke University - Department of Economics; University of Glasgow - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Martin Eichenbaum

Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Sergio T. Rebelo

Northwestern University - Kellogg School of Management; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: February 2007

Abstract

The carry trade strategy involves selling forward currencies that are at a forward premium and buying forward currencies that are at a forward discount. We compare the payoffs to the carry trade applied to two different portfolios. The first portfolio consists exclusively of developed country currencies. The second portfolio includes the currencies of both developed countries and emerging markets. Our main empirical findings are as follows. First, including emerging market currencies in our portfolio substantially increases the Sharpe ratio associated with the carry trade. Second, bid-ask spreads are two to four times larger in emerging markets than in developed countries. Third and most dramatically, the payoffs to the carry trade for both portfolios are uncorrelated with returns to the U.S. stock market.

Keywords: Carry trade, exchange rate, uncovered interest parity

JEL Classification: F3, F41

Suggested Citation

Burnside, Craig and Eichenbaum, Martin and Tavares Rebelo, Sergio, The Returns to Currency Speculation in Emerging Markets (February 2007). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6148. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1133793

Craig Burnside (Contact Author)

Duke University - Department of Economics ( email )

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University of Glasgow - Department of Economics

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Martin Eichenbaum

Northwestern University ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Sergio Tavares Rebelo

Northwestern University - Kellogg School of Management ( email )

2001 Sheridan Road
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Evanston, IL 60208
United States
847-467-2329 (Phone)
847-491-5719 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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