Retail-Price Drivers and Retailer Profits

Abstract

What are the drivers of retailer pricing tactics over time? Based on multivariate time-series analysis of two rich data sets, we quantify the relative importance of competitive retailer prices, pricing history, brand demand, wholesale prices, and retailer category-management considerations as drivers of retail prices. Interestingly, competitive retailer prices account for less than 10% of the over-time variation in retail prices. Instead, pricing history, wholesale price, and brand demand are the main drivers of retail-price variation over time. Moreover, the influence of these price drivers on retailer pricing tactics is linked to retailer category margin. We find that demand-based pricing and category-management considerations are associated with higher retailer margins. In contrast, dependence on pricing history and pricing based on store traffic considerations imply lower retailer margins.

Keywords: retail-price drivers, retailer profits, time-series models, generalized forecast error variance