Growth, Democracy, and Civil War

24 Pages Posted: 6 Jun 2008

See all articles by Markus Bruckner

Markus Bruckner

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences

Antonio Ciccone

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

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Abstract

Are civil wars partly caused by low economic growth? And do democratic institutions attenuate the impact of low growth on the likelihood of civil war? Our approach to answering these questions exploits that international commodity prices have a significant effect on income growth in Sub-Saharan African countries. We show that lower income growth makes civil war more likely in non-democracies. This effect is significantly weaker in democracies. So much so, that we do not find a link between growth and civil war in countries with democratic institutions. Our results therefore point to an interaction between economic and institutional causes of civil war.

Keywords: civil war, Commodity prices, growth, rainfall

JEL Classification: O0, P0, Q0

Suggested Citation

Bruckner, Markus and Ciccone, Antonio, Growth, Democracy, and Civil War. CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6568. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1140095

Markus Bruckner

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences ( email )

Ramon Trias Fargas 25-27
Barcelona, 08005
Spain

Antonio Ciccone (Contact Author)

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences ( email )

Ramon Trias Fargas 25-27
Barcelona, 08005
Spain
+34 93 542 1669 (Phone)
+34 93 542 1746 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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