Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity

25 Pages Posted: 9 Jun 2008

See all articles by Markus Bruckner

Markus Bruckner

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences

Antonio Ciccone

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: Februray 2008

Abstract

According to the economic approach to political transitions, negative transitory economic shocks can give rise to a window of opportunity for democratic change. We examine this hypothesis using yearly rainfall variation over the 1980-2004 period in 41 Sub-Saharan African countries. We find that a 25% drop in rainfall increases the probability of a transition to democracy during the following two years by around 3 percentage points. A 5% fall in income due to low rainfall raises the probability of democratization by around 7 percentage points. We also find that rainfall does not affect transitions from democracy to autocracy.

Keywords: democratization, transitory economic shocks

JEL Classification: O0, P0

Suggested Citation

Bruckner, Markus and Ciccone, Antonio, Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity (Februray 2008). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6691. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1141013

Markus Bruckner

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences ( email )

Ramon Trias Fargas 25-27
Barcelona, 08005
Spain

Antonio Ciccone (Contact Author)

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences ( email )

Ramon Trias Fargas 25-27
Barcelona, 08005
Spain
+34 93 542 1669 (Phone)
+34 93 542 1746 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
4
Abstract Views
534
PlumX Metrics