Consumer Confidence and Elections

61 Pages Posted: 10 Jun 2008

See all articles by Gikas A. Hardouvelis

Gikas A. Hardouvelis

University of Piraeus; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Dimitrios D. Thomakos

University of Peloponnese - School of Management, Economics and Informatics; University of Bologna - Rimini Center for Economic Analysis (RCEA)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: February 2008

Abstract

We investigate the behavior of consumer confidence around national elections in the EU-15 countries during 1985:1-2007:3. Consumer confidence increases before the date of elections and falls subsequently by almost the same amount. It is able to predict the strength of the performance of the incumbent party and its probability of re-election both alone and in the presence of macro-economic and fiscal variables. The post-election drop is negatively related to the previous run up and is a function of the political - but not the economic - environment. A similar rise and fall characterizes consumer confidence in the United States.

Keywords: consumer confidence, EU-15, fiscal conditions, incumbent party, macro-economy, national elections, political business cycle, USA

JEL Classification: D7, E6, H3

Suggested Citation

Hardouvelis, Gikas A. and Thomakos, Dimitrios D., Consumer Confidence and Elections (February 2008). , Vol. , pp. -, 2008. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1141607

Gikas A. Hardouvelis (Contact Author)

University of Piraeus ( email )

80 Karaoli & Dimitriou Str.
18534 Piraeus, 185 34 -GR
Greece
+32010 4142323 (Phone)
+3210 6724848 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.eurobank.gr

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Dimitrios D. Thomakos

University of Peloponnese - School of Management, Economics and Informatics ( email )

Department of Economics
22100 Tripolis
Greece
+30 2710 230139 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://es.uop.gr/

University of Bologna - Rimini Center for Economic Analysis (RCEA)

Via Patara, 3
Rimini (RN), RN 47900
Italy

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