Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters

21 Pages Posted: 18 Jun 2008  

Gianna Boero

University of Warwick - Department of Economics

Jeremy Smith

University of Warwick - Department of Economics

Kenneth F. Wallis

University of Warwick - Department of Economics

Date Written: 0000

Abstract

This article introduces a new source of survey data, namely the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters. The survey collects point and density forecasts of inflation and GDP growth and, hence, offers the opportunity of constructing direct measures of uncertainty. We present a simple statistical framework in which to define and interrelate measures of uncertainty and disagreement. The resulting measures are compared with other direct measures of uncertainty, nationally and internationally. A significant, sustained reduction in inflation uncertainty followed the 1997 granting of operational independence to the Bank of England to pursue a monetary policy of inflation targeting.

Suggested Citation

Boero, Gianna and Smith, Jeremy and Wallis, Kenneth F., Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters (0000). The Economic Journal, Vol. 118, Issue 530, pp. 1107-1127, July 2008. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1147268 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02162.x

Gianna Boero

University of Warwick - Department of Economics ( email )

Coventry CV4 7AL
United Kingdom

Jeremy P. Smith

University of Warwick - Department of Economics ( email )

Coventry CV4 7AL
United Kingdom

Kenneth F. Wallis

University of Warwick - Department of Economics ( email )

Coventry CV4 7AL
United Kingdom

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