A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture Across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa

30 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by S. Niggol Seo

S. Niggol Seo

Muaebak Institute of Global Warming Studies

Robert O. Mendelsohn

Yale University - School of Forestry & Environmental Studies; Yale University

Ariel Dinar

World Bank - Agriculture and Rural Development Department

Rashid M. Hassan

University of Pretoria

Pradeep Kurukulasuriya

Yale University - School of Forestry and Environmental Studies; United Nations Development Programme

Date Written: April 1, 2008

Abstract

This paper examines the distribution of climate change impacts across the 16 agro-ecological zones in Africa using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization combined with economic survey data from a Global Environment Facility/World Bank project. Net revenue per hectare of cropland is regressed on a set of climate, soil, and socio-economic variables using different econometric specifications "with" and "without" country fixed effects. Country fixed effects slightly reduce predicted future climate related damage to agriculture. With a mild climate scenario, African farmers gain income from climate change; with a more severe scenario, they lose income. Some locations are more affected than others. The analysis of agro-ecological zones implies that the effects of climate change will vary across Africa. For example, currently productive areas such as dry/moist savannah are more vulnerable to climate change while currently less productive agricultural zones such as humid forest or sub-humid zones become more productive in the future. The agro-ecological zone classification can help explain the variation of impacts across the landscape.

Keywords: Climate Change, Global Environment Facility, Common Property Resource Development, Rural Poverty Reduction, Transport and Environment

Suggested Citation

Seo, S. Niggol and Mendelsohn, Robert O. and Dinar, Ariel and Hassan, Rashid M. and Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep and Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep, A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture Across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa (April 1, 2008). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4599, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1149102

S. Niggol Seo (Contact Author)

Muaebak Institute of Global Warming Studies ( email )

Bangkok
Thailand

HOME PAGE: http://www.muaebakinstitute.com/?page_id=229

Robert O. Mendelsohn

Yale University - School of Forestry & Environmental Studies ( email )

195 Prospect Street
New Haven, CT 06511
United States

Yale University ( email )

New Haven, CT 06520
United States
2034325128 (Phone)

Ariel Dinar

World Bank - Agriculture and Rural Development Department ( email )

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States
202-473-0434 (Phone)

Rashid M. Hassan

University of Pretoria ( email )

Physical Address Economic and Management Sciences
Pretoria, Gauteng 0002
South Africa

Pradeep Kurukulasuriya

Yale University - School of Forestry and Environmental Studies ( email )

New Haven, CT 06511
United States

United Nations Development Programme ( email )

New York, NY 10017
United States
2129066843 (Phone)

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