Differential Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in African Cropland by Agro-Ecological Zones

42 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Niggol Seo

Niggol Seo

Yale University; World Bank

Robert O. Mendelsohn

Yale University - School of Forestry & Environmental Studies; Yale University

Pradeep Kurukulasuriya

United Nations Development Programme; Yale University - School of Forestry and Environmental Studies

Ariel Dinar

World Bank - Agriculture and Rural Development Department

Rashid M. Hassan

University of Pretoria

Date Written: April 1, 2008

Abstract

This paper quantifies how African farmers have adapted their crop and irrigation decisions to their farm's current agro-ecological zone. The results indicate that farmers carefully consider the climate and other conditions of their farm when making these choices. These results are then used to forecast how farmers might change their irrigation and crop choice decisions if climate changes. The model predicts African farmers would adopt irrigation more often under a very hot and dry climate scenario but less often with a mild and wet scenario. However, farms in the deserts, lowland humid forest, or mid elevation humid forest would reduce irrigation even in the very hot and dry climate scenario. Area under fruits and vegetables would increase Africa-wide with the very hot and dry climate scenario, except in the lowland semi-arid agro-ecological zone. Millet would increase overall under the mild and wet scenario, but decline substantially in the lowland dry savannah and lowland semi-arid agro-ecological zones. Maize would be chosen less often across all the agro-ecological zones under both climate scenarios. Wheat would decrease across Africa. The authors recommend that care must be taken to match adaptations to local conditions because the optimal adaptation would depend on the agro-ecological zone and the climate scenario.

Keywords: Crops & Crop Management Systems, Climate Change, Food & Beverage Industry, Renewable Energy, Rural Poverty Reduction

Suggested Citation

Seo, Sungno Niggol and Mendelsohn, Robert O. and Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep and Dinar, Ariel and Hassan, Rashid M., Differential Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in African Cropland by Agro-Ecological Zones (April 1, 2008). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, Vol. , pp. -, 2008. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1149103

World Bank ( email )

Robert O. Mendelsohn

Yale University - School of Forestry & Environmental Studies ( email )

195 Prospect Street
New Haven, CT 06511
United States

Yale University ( email )

New Haven, CT 06520
United States
2034325128 (Phone)

Pradeep Kurukulasuriya

United Nations Development Programme ( email )

New York, NY 10017
United States
2129066843 (Phone)

Yale University - School of Forestry and Environmental Studies ( email )

New Haven, CT 06511
United States

Ariel Dinar

World Bank - Agriculture and Rural Development Department ( email )

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States
202-473-0434 (Phone)

Rashid M. Hassan

University of Pretoria ( email )

Physical Address Economic and Management Sciences
Pretoria, Gauteng 0002
South Africa

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
100
Abstract Views
687
rank
261,788
PlumX Metrics