Central Asia after Fifteen Years of Transition: Growth, Regional Cooperation, and Policy Choices

Abstract

This paper presents a coherent and systematic analysis of the collapse and subsequent revival of the Central Asian Republics (CARs) since 1990. The focus is on the pattern of growth and structural change during the cycle of decline and subsequent revival in the CARs, which have yet to be adequately analyzed in the literature on transition. The paper relates economic performance to initial conditions, country characteristics, and policies. Within this framework, it proposes a simple typology of policies (including a new "Type III" set of policies on regional cooperation and industrial competitiveness) and relates them to the cycle of decline and revival. It goes on to examine medium-term prospects and policy needs for the CARs.

Keywords: Economics of transition, regional integration, Central Asian Republics

JEL Classification: F15, P33, P36