Structured Analogies for Forecasting

13 Pages Posted: 30 Jun 2008

See all articles by J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: June 29, 2008

Abstract

People often use analogies when forecasting, but in an unstructured manner. We propose a structured judgmental procedure whereby experts list analogies, rate their similarity to the target, and match outcomes with possible target outcomes. An administrator would then derive a forecast from the information. When predicting decisions made in eight conflict situations, unaided experts' forecasts were little better than chance, at 32% accurate. In contrast, 46% of structured-analogies forecasts were accurate. Among experts who were able to think of two or more analogies and who had direct experience with their closest analogy, 60% of forecasts were accurate. Collaboration did not help.

Keywords: Availability, Case-based reasoning, Comparison, Decision, Method

Suggested Citation

Armstrong, J. Scott, Structured Analogies for Forecasting (June 29, 2008). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1153118 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1153118

J. Scott Armstrong (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong.cfm

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