A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon

25 Pages Posted: 1 Jul 2008

See all articles by Julian di Giovanni

Julian di Giovanni

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Department of Economics and Business; Barcelona Graduate School of Economics (Barcelona GSE); CREI and Universitat Pompeu Fabra; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

E. H. Gardner

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: April 2008

Abstract

This paper applies a simple probabilistic approach to debt sustainability analysis to the case of Lebanon. The paper derives "fan charts" to depict the probability distribution of the government debt to GDP ratio under a medium-term adjustment scenario, as a result of shocks to GDP growth and interest rates. The distribution of shocks is derived from the past shocks to these variables and the related variance covariance. Because we are interested in assessing the sustainability of a particular policy scenario, we do not consider independent fiscal policy shocks or the endogenous policy response to shocks.

Keywords: Working Paper

Suggested Citation

di Giovanni, Julian and Gardner, E. H., A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon (April 2008). IMF Working Paper No. 08/97, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1153761

Julian Di Giovanni (Contact Author)

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York ( email )

33 Liberty Street
New York, NY 10045
United States

HOME PAGE: http://julian.digiovanni.ca

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Department of Economics and Business ( email )

Barcelona
Spain

HOME PAGE: http://julian.digiovanni.ca

Barcelona Graduate School of Economics (Barcelona GSE) ( email )

Ramon Trias Fargas, 25-27
Barcelona, Barcelona 08005
Spain

HOME PAGE: http://julian.digiovanni.ca

CREI and Universitat Pompeu Fabra ( email )

HOME PAGE: http://julian.digiovanni.ca

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://julian.digiovanni.ca

E. H. Gardner

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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