Emigration Intentions: Mere Words or True Plans? Explaining International Migration Intentions and Behavior

28 Pages Posted: 1 Jul 2008

See all articles by Hendrik P. van Dalen

Hendrik P. van Dalen

Tilburg University, CentER; Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)

Kene Henkens

Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute

Date Written: June 30, 2008

Abstract

Do people follow up on their intentions? In this paper we confront the emigration intentions formed by inhabitants of the Netherlands during the year 2004-2005 and the emigration steps they took in the subsequent two years. Three results stand out. First, it appears that intentions are good predictors of future emigration: 24 percent of those who had stated an intention to emigrate have actually emigrated within two years time. Second, within the group of potential emigrants, those who have emigrated and those who have not yet emigrated, do not differ much from each other. The potential emigrants who have not yet emigrated are in poorer health. Third, the forces that trigger emigration intentions are also the same forces that make people actually move.

Keywords: emigration, intentions, behavior, public domain

JEL Classification: J61, F22, D84

Suggested Citation

van Dalen, Hendrik P. and Henkens, Kene, Emigration Intentions: Mere Words or True Plans? Explaining International Migration Intentions and Behavior (June 30, 2008). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1153985 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1153985

Hendrik P. Van Dalen (Contact Author)

Tilburg University, CentER ( email )

Tilburg University
P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, NL-5000 LE
Netherlands
+13 4668982 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.tilburguniversity.nl/webwijs/show/?uid=h.p.vandalen

Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) ( email )

P.O. Box 11650
NL-2502 AR The Hague
Netherlands
+70 356 5237 (Phone)
+70 364 7187 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.nidi.knaw.nl/en/staff/vandalen/

Kene Henkens

Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute ( email )

P.O. Box 11650
The Hague NL-2502 AR
Netherlands
+3170 3565235 (Phone)
+3170 3647187 (Fax)

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