Fiscal Positions in Latin America: Have They Really Improved?

32 Pages Posted: 1 Jul 2008

See all articles by Ivanna Vladkova Hollar

Ivanna Vladkova Hollar

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Jeromin Zettelmeyer

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics; CEPR

Date Written: May 2008

Abstract

Fiscal performance in Latin America looks much improved this decade compared to the 1980s or 1990s. Is this a "structural" improvement or likely to be transitory? This paper answers this question by estimating the relationship between non-commodity revenue and the economic cycle, and evaluating commodity revenues using alternative medium term commodity price projections. The main result is that structural revenues have indeed improved as a share of GDP, and structural primary balances are currently in surplus in many Latin American countries. However, the magnitude of these improvements is uncertain, in part due to uncertainty about the commodity price outlook.

Keywords: Working Paper, South America, Central America, Latin America, Revenue sources, Tax revenues, Commodity markets, Balance of payments, Business cycles

Suggested Citation

Vladkova Hollar, Ivanna and Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, Fiscal Positions in Latin America: Have They Really Improved? (May 2008). IMF Working Papers, Vol. , pp. 1-30, 2008. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1154296

Ivanna Vladkova Hollar

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Jeromin Zettelmeyer (Contact Author)

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics ( email )

1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

CEPR ( email )

London
United Kingdom

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