Are Three Points for a Win Really Better than Two? Theoretical and Empirical Evidence for German Soccer
IÖB-Discussion Paper 4/08
36 Pages Posted: 7 Jul 2008
Date Written: May 2008
The effects of the three-point rule in first league German soccer are tested empirically and compared to games from the German cup-competition. The inclusion of cup games ensures that changes in league games can be attributed to the three-point rule. As a result of their relative devaluation, the number of draws should decrease. Furthermore, an increase in the number of close wins is expected. The strategy of a leading team becomes more defensive, resulting in fewer goal shootings by that team, as well as fewer shooting opportunities for the opponent. Empirical evidence supporting these effects is found.
Keywords: Difference-in-Differences, Non-Zero-Sum-Game, Soccer, Three-Point-Rule
JEL Classification: C72, C93, L83
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation