The Hot Hand and the Cold Hand in Professional Golf
33 Pages Posted: 9 Jul 2008
Date Written: April 25, 2007
Abstract
Previous studies have shown that people believe in the existence of the "hot hand" effect: recent good performances make one more confident and lead to more good performances. This study examines hole-by-hole performances by four types of professional golfers, which is perhaps the ideal environment to evaluate whether such an effect exists. The results show some evidence that there is both a hot hand effect and a cold hand effect (bad performances lead to more bad performances), but the effects are not as strong as people believe them to be, and they are different for different types of players.
Keywords: hot hand effect, golf, law of small numbers, decision making
JEL Classification: D01, D81, D83, D84
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation